EPFL scientists have developed a model that can help policymakers factor in uncertainty when they map out their energy strategies. Today such strategies are based largely on forecasts of fuelprices, technology costs and energy demand. However, these forecasts are often incorrect and can lead to flawed decisions.

The more money there is in a lost wallet, the more likely it is to be returned to its owner, researchers from the Universities of Zurich, Michigan and Utah show in a global study.