In their experiment, Martin Schonger and Daniela Sele investigated the comprehensibility of different representations of the exponential development of case numbers. (Photo: ETH Zurich)
In their experiment, Martin Schonger and Daniela Sele investigated the comprehensibility of different representations of the exponential development of case numbers. (Photo: ETH Zurich) - Most people underestimate exponential growth, including when it comes to the spread of the coronavirus. The ability to grasp the magnitude of exponential growth depends on the way in which it is communicated. Using the right framing helps to understand the benefit of mitigation measures. The coronavirus outbreak offered the public a crash course in statistics, with terms like doubling time, logarithmic scales, R factor, rolling averages, and excess mortality now on everyone's tongue. However, simply having heard these terms does not mean that someone will be able to comprehend the speed of the spread. Exponential growth is a notoriously difficult concept to understand.
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