Ski resorts and researchers could potentially rely on statistics to evaluate the long-term avalanche activity on their slopes with a simple webcam, a weather station, and several years' worth of observations. Researchers from EPFL have validated a statistical avalanche model that translates observations into an assessment of the link between snowfall and avalanches. Some places are avalanche magnets; consider the Vallée de la Sionne on southern flanks of the Sex Noir in Valais, where about one hundred avalanches come rumbling down every year. But evaluating which slopes are most prone to avalanches remains as much an art as it is a science. Today's most advanced models simulate the physics of avalanches and aim to provide a short-term estimation of the risk for specific slopes. Two years ago, researchers from EPFL proposed a model based on statistics to assesses long-term avalanche activity and quantify the statistical link between snowfall and avalanches. Using observations of close to 550 avalanches collected in the Vallée de la Sionne over six years, the researchers have now validated their model.
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